Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-21 2.069264 2.417564 2.804137 3.264683 3.798131 4.396315 5.117757
2025-12-28 1.597104 2.082108 2.678882 3.465695 4.474380 5.722732 7.383825
2026-01-04 1.245133 1.777106 2.489628 3.510333 4.931447 6.836210 9.579335
2026-01-11 1.012241 1.560015 2.348231 3.559035 5.365417 7.952807 11.931697
2026-01-18 0.836791 1.379421 2.210721 3.567787 5.717362 8.977995 14.283426
2026-01-25 0.699055 1.224350 2.075648 3.543087 5.994969 9.908371 16.602301
2026-02-01 0.559931 1.037767 1.853793 3.333357 5.930709 10.275529 18.057080
2026-02-08 0.466105 0.910219 1.706157 3.217917 5.994659 10.842973 19.897691
2026-02-15 0.403170 0.826490 1.619875 3.192926 6.205353 11.676562 22.294804
2026-02-22 0.369223 0.791583 1.616460 3.317786 6.702823 13.076140 25.886179
2026-03-01 0.323634 0.724864 1.540558 3.288746 6.898354 13.935293 28.565717
2026-03-08 0.282309 0.659544 1.456654 3.229130 7.021162 14.663852 31.074704
2026-03-15 0.249278 0.608153 1.397084 3.218747 7.259772 15.684855 34.378578
2026-03-22 0.240384 0.610597 1.454954 3.473965 8.105458 18.068324 40.852243
2026-03-29 0.218502 0.578179 1.429604 3.538663 8.542857 19.651092 45.836244
2026-04-05 0.198775 0.547278 1.402546 3.594697 8.968300 21.262984 51.101964
2026-04-12 0.178990 0.512367 1.359907 3.605923 9.289215 22.680851 56.115125
2026-04-19 0.159955 0.475707 1.306678 3.581780 9.519827 23.918477 60.869735
2026-04-26 0.135017 0.417644 1.188322 3.370092 9.247924 23.923674 62.657350
2026-05-03 0.117531 0.377467 1.110681 3.253507 9.202835 24.474723 65.866013
2026-05-10 0.105716 0.351859 1.068827 3.228277 9.396768 25.650836 70.819443
2026-05-17 0.100341 0.345167 1.079741 3.354487 10.024476 28.026884 79.213434
2026-05-24 0.090570 0.322391 1.039592 3.325138 10.209954 29.256925 84.704283